ETHIOPIA 'S OFFENSIVE AGAINST SOMALIA MAY BE DRAWN OUT

[Los Angeles Times, December 27, 2006] [See also: AFRICAN NEWS] ETHIOPIA'S attacks against Islamic forces in Somalia may have delivered a short-term military victory, but analysts warn that a longer offensive could present the US ally with some of the same challenges facing American forces in Iraq. Air strikes against the Somali capital, Mogadishu, and other towns on Sunday, Monday and yesterday demonstrated Ethiopia's military superiority over the Islamic forces that seized most of southern Somalia during the northern summer. But Ethiopia would be hard-pressed to dispatch enough troops to capture and occupy Islamic-held areas of Somalia. "I don't understand what Ethiopia's objective is," said David Shinn, a former US ambassador to Ethiopia and now political science professor at George Washington University. "I can't imagine their objective is to occupy and hold Somalia. It was a very limited victory." Most experts agree that Ethiopia's battle-tested army, with as many as 150,000 fighters, could easily beat Somalia's rag-tag Islamic troops, believed to number fewer than 10,000. But Islamists say they would compensate for their lack of numbers and sophisticated weaponry by pursing guerilla tactics, including suicide attacks, like those US and allied troops face in Iraq. "The Ethiopians could get bogged down into a hopeless, long-term guerilla campaign with enormous supply lines," Dr Shinn said. "I don't see how they could 'defeat' the Islamists in the long run." The attacks since Sunday marked the first time Ethiopia has publicly acknowledged taking direct military action against Somalia's Islamists. Ethiopian officials said they acted to pre-empt threats by Islamic forces to stage a "holy war" against them. Ethiopia is also moving to protect Somalia's weak transitional government, which has been battling Islamists for control. Somalia has been without a functioning government since 1991. Anger over the Ethiopian air strikes reverberated through Mogadishu on Monday. Radio stations played nationalist songs, recalling the history of tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, which last went to war in 1977. Youths rioted in several Somali cities, urging all adult males to join the Islamic forces. The Ethiopian strikes have helped unify the Islamic Courts Union, an alliance of religious leaders formed this year to defeat US-backed warlords. In recent months some cracks were beginning to appear inside the alliance over how rigorously to implement Islamic law. But US and Ethiopian officials said extremists had seized control of the Islamic Courts, which they said had links to terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda. "I used to think that the Islamic Courts Union were just another interest group, but now I recognise that they are standing up for the country and religion," said Muse Ali Omar, a banana vendor in Mogadishu. "Ethiopia is my enemy; I will not sell bananas any more. I will take my gun and go for jihad." Reuters reported that Ethiopian troops were yesterday advancing on Mogadishu, claiming they could seize it within 24-48 hours, according to Somalia's envoy to Ethiopia, Abdikarin Farah. Ethiopian troops were 70 kilometres outside the Somali capital, he said. But an Islamist spokesman warned any attempt to seize Mogadishu would end in disaster for Ethiopia. "It will be their destruction and doomsday," Abdi Kafi said.

NOBEL PEACE PRIZE FOR BANGLADESHI BANKER

[news.com with AAP and AFP, October 13, 2006] A Bangladeshi banker and the institution he founded have been jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for helping the country's poor, the awarding committee has announced. Muhammad Yunus and the Grameen Bank, founded in 1976, will halve the prize "for their efforts to create economic and social development from below" through micro-credit, the committe has said. "Yunus's long-term vision is to eliminate poverty in the world. Across cultures and civilizations, Yunus and Grameen Bank have shown that even the poorest of the poor can work to bring about their own development." The bank offers loans to poor people without any financial security. It has 6.6 million clients, 96 per cent of whom are women. Mr Yunus has said the award will give a renewed impetus to the bank's work. "I am delighted, I can't believe it. People were telling me 'You got the Nobel Prize' but I didn't know," Mr Yunus has said on Norway's NRK public television immediately after the announcement. "All the people who have received micro-credit will be so happy, so happy to hear what you have just announced. It will give a significant amount of energy to the whole movement, I can guarantee you that ... this is just the beginning of it. You are endorsing a dream to achieve a poverty-free world," he has said. Mr Yunus gave out his first loan in 1974 for a value equivalent to $36. The micro-credit concept has been copied all over the world. The committee has once again shown its ability to confound the punters. Former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans had been tipped as among the favourites to win the prize. Mr Evans heads the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), a think-tank which conducts research and works to prevent conflicts. He was an architect of a peace accord for Cambodia, and Labor foreign minister of Australia in 1988-1996.

US REPUBLICANS SPEND "LIKE DEMOCRATS"

[By Richard Wolf, USA TODAY, April 2, 2006] WASHINGTON — Federal spending is outstripping economic growth at a rate unseen in more than half a century, provoking some conservatives to complain that government under Republican control has gotten too big. The federal government is currently spending 20.8 cents of every $1 the economy generates, up from 18.5 cents in 2001, White House budget documents show. That's the most rapid growth during one administration since Franklin Roosevelt. There are no signs that the trend is about to turn around. The House Budget Committee last week rejected a proposal that would require spending hikes to be offset by cuts in other spending or by tax increases. This week, the House is scheduled to debate the $2.8 trillion budget for 2007, which projects an additional $3 trillion of debt in the next five years. The Sept. 11 attacks, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Gulf Coast hurricanes account for only part of the increased spending. Other factors: the biggest military buildup in decades, domestic spending, and the rise of benefits for the elderly, poor and disabled. "You take anything, and we've grown it big," says Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., a leading critic of the spending spurt. "When you're in control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, there's just no stop on it. There's no brake." Examples: • Spending for President Bush's military buildup, which began before 9/11, has risen nearly 50% above inflation in five years. • Medicare's new prescription-drug coverage is projected to cost an average of $80 billion a year over the next decade, adding nearly 20% to the health care program's annual price tag. • Spending on social programs, from education to veterans health care, has risen faster than at any time since the 1960s. "Budgeting is about making choices, and this period is one that shows a complete absence of that," says Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a Republican who stepped down last year as director of the Congressional Budget Office. The White House points to recent domestic cuts and the elimination of scores of small programs. It says Bush has led efforts to trim Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. "By far the bulk of new funding — 75% of it — has been to restore the hollowed-out military the president inherited, strengthen homeland defenses after 9/11, and fight the war on terror," says Scott Milburn, spokesman for the Office of Management and Budget. "These are essential investments that were required ... to protect our nation." The spending spike contrasts with the mid-1990s, when Republicans gained control of Congress and compromised with President Clinton on spending cuts that led to a $236 billion budget surplus in 2000. "Republicans have gotten the sense that they're going to get elected by passing out money to people," says former Republican House Budget Committee chairman John Kasich. READ FULL ARTICLE BUDGET CHANGES Average annual budget change as a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product during these administrations: Roosevelt 14.8% Truman -8.6% Eisenhower -1.3% Kennedy 0.2% Johnson 1% Nixon 1.6% Ford -1.4% Carter 1.8% Reagan -0.6% G. Bush 0.2% Clinton -1.8% G.W. Bush 2.4%

INDIANS LIKE THE USA

[Pew Research Center, March 1, 2006] Looking for some good news amid the often dismal findings about America's image abroad? Try India. Anti-Americanism has surged in much of the world since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003, but India has bucked the trend. Among Indians, America's image has actually improved in recent years. Across a range of measures, Indian public opinion is consistently pro-American. The 2005 Pew Global Attitudes survey found that about seven-in-ten Indians (71%) have a favorable view of the United States. Of the 17 countries polled in the survey, only Americans themselves hold a more favorable view of their country. And while U.S. favorability ratings have plunged in many countries, Indians are significantly more positive about the United States now than they were in the summer of 2002, when 54% gave the U.S. favorable marks. In the world's largest democracy, moreover, President Bush, who is unpopular in many countries around the globe, is also widely admired. Just over half (54%) of Indians say they have a lot or some confidence that Bush will generally do the right thing in world affairs, a significantly higher percentage than in any other country except his own. Indeed, of the 16 countries surveyed on this question in 2005, India was the only one, aside from the United States, in which a majority expressed at least some confidence in the American president. By contrast, the president is viewed much more negatively in Pakistan, the next stop on Bush's South Asian trip. Just 10% of Pakistanis express a great deal or some confidence in Bush to do the right thing regarding world affairs. Morocco (9%), Turkey (8%), and Jordan (1%) were the only countries surveyed to voice less confidence in Bush than do the people of Pakistan. Indians also have a strongly positive impression of the American people -- 71% have a favorable opinion of Americans, up from 58% in 2002. Moreover, Indians tend to associate Americans with positive character traits, and generally do not associate Americans with negative characteristics. Eight-in-ten (81%) Indians consider Americans hardworking, and 86% - the highest percentage of any country surveyed, including the U.S. itself - say Americans are inventive. Fewer (58%) regard Americans as honest, but even among U.S. respondents, Americans receive mediocre marks for truthfulness (63%). Meanwhile, Indians are among the least likely to associate Americans with negative traits such as greed, violence, rudeness, and immorality. And America remains a land of opportunity for many Indians. Asked where they would recommend that a young person move in order to lead a good life, a 38% plurality of Indians choose the United States. This finding may seem a weak endorsement, given America's longstanding image as a hopeful new world for immigrants; however, in no other country does even a plurality recommend the U.S. to the hypothetical young person searching for a better life. In other countries, Australia, Canada, Great Britain, and Germany are all more popular choices. After India, Poland has the second largest share of respondents recommending the United States - and only one-in-five Poles (19%) suggests America as a destination. Favorable Views of U.S. Foreign Policy In many countries, anti-Americanism is driven by disagreement with U.S. foreign policy. Perceptions of U.S. unilateralism, opposition to the war in Iraq, and reservations about the war on terrorism have fueled anti-American sentiments most dramatically in the Muslim world, although unpopular policies have hurt America's image in other regions as well. Indians, however, largely approve of the way the U.S. conducts itself in the international arena. For example, Indians are less likely than others to believe the U.S. acts unilaterally on the world stage -- 63% of Indians say the U.S. takes into account the interests of other countries when making foreign policy decisions. Having suffered terrorist attacks in their own recent history, including a December 2001 assault on the Indian Parliament, Indians tend to support the war on terrorism. Just over half (52%) favor U.S.-led efforts to fight terrorism, a level of support similar to many European countries, and significantly higher than in predominantly Muslim countries. As in many other countries, however, support for the campaign against terrorism has slipped among Indians since 2002, when, just months after the September 11, 2001 attacks, 65% backed U.S. policies. On Iraq, India is the only country other than the U.S. in which a plurality (45%) believes the removal of Saddam from power has made the world a safer place, and Indians are even less likely than Americans to say the Iraq war made the world more dangerous. Indians, however, do not regret their country's decision not to use force in Iraq -- 75% say their government did the right thing in abstaining from the U.S.-led coalition. But Indians Support Checks on U.S. Power Despite their pro-American attitudes, Indians would like to see another power become as militarily strong as the United States. Indeed, Indians are among the most likely to favor another country or group of countries rising to the level of global superpower. Still, there is less support among Indians for China becoming as militarily powerful as the United States. Indians are split over this issue, with 45% saying that if China became America's military equal this would be a good thing and 45% saying this would be a bad development. Here, India occupies something of a middle ground between European countries, which generally oppose the potential military rise of China, and majority Muslim countries such as Pakistan, Jordan, Indonesia, and Turkey, which generally welcome the idea of a strong China that could rival U.S. military strength. Indians, however, are more supportive of Chinese economic power -- 53% believe China's growing economy is a good thing for India. Income is related to views about Chinese military and economic power, as wealthier Indians are more worried about China becoming a military rival to the U.S. and more concerned about China as an economic threat to India. About the Survey In India, the survey was conducted May 1-29, 2005 among a probability sample of 2,042 respondents. The survey was conducted only in urban areas and is not representative of the entire country. Interviews were conducted in-person, in the appropriate local language (Hindi, Gujarati, Tamil, Bengali, Telugu, Marathi), with adults ages 18 and older. The margin of sampling error for the results is plus or minus 2%. For full topline results for each country surveyed, see the Pew Global Attitudes report U.S. Image Up Slightly, But Still Negative: American Character Gets Mixed Reviews, released June 23, 2005. SURVEY DETAILS

Khaled Meshaal

HAMAS LEADER SEEKS PALESTINIAN STATE WITH 1967 BORDERS

[Agence France-Presse, November 26, 2006] HAMAS political leader Khaled Meshaal has warned of a third intifada unless there is an international agreement for a Palestinian state with 1967 borders within six months. "We give the international community six months for real political horizons... There is a historic opportunity for a Palestinian state within 1967 borders," Mr Meshaal said in Cairo."Our national demands, and these are not the demands of Hamas, are the end of the occupation, the creation of a Palestinian state within 1967 borders without settlements, big or small, real sovereignty over and under the territory," he said. "We reject what others have proposed, such as phases or phased negotiations, declarations of principles. All Palestinian forces have agreed unanimously to a state within 1967 borders. Arab States have also agreed to this position. "Seize this opportunity," he said in comments addressed to the international community. "We will not be patient for longer than we have been. If our demands are not met, the Palestinian people will close all political files and launch a third intifada. The conflict will be open and the victory in this conflict will be ours.” Mr Meshaal, who is based in Damascus, has been holding talks with Egyptian officials in Cairo on the problems facing the formation of a Palestinian unity government and securing a prisoner swap deal with Israel.

TEXANS "DISAPPEAR" AT MEXICAN BORDER

[Associated Press, December 1, 2006] LAREDO, Texas For residents of this border city, it was a terrifying yet familiar tale: Three more Texans vanished in the dangerous Mexican countryside across the Rio Grande, abducted amid reports of escalating violence between warring drug cartels. The weekend kidnapping of a prominent Laredo businessman and two other Texans was the latest of dozens of abductions in recent years that have more people here steering clear of the once-accessible border. "It's gotten a lot worse within the last year, to the point where you just don't go," said Angie Cuellar, a Laredo resident and longtime friend of kidnapped businessman Librado Pina Jr., 49. "I think the thing that scares me the most is being in the wrong place at the wrong time." Authorities said 30 to 40 armed men stormed Pina's remote deer-hunting ranch, located on dry scrubland and low rolling hills about 40 miles northwest of Nuevo Laredo. The men abducted Pina; his 25-year-old son, Librado Pina III; David Mueller, 45, of the Sweetwater area; Mexican businessman Fidel Rodriguez Cerdan; and Marcos Ortiz, a Mexican national who works as a cook at the ranch. Mueller and Cerdan were freed Wednesday "Well, everyone is scared," said Antonia Ramirez, a 68-year-old Nuevo Laredo resident who was shopping in downtown Laredo on Thursday. "You hear about it on the news all the time. It's worse than a few years ago." Erik Vasys, an FBI spokesman in San Antonio, said 60 U.S. citizens have been kidnapped in the area since 2004, and 21 of those cases remain unresolved. He said the abductions are the result of increasing lawlessness as two major drug cartels — the Gulf cartel and the Sinaloa cartel — fight for control of the cocaine and marijuana trafficking routes into the United States. "When you have the extreme retaliatory drug violence, bad guy on bad guy, you get all the peripheral activity for other people, such as kidnapping," Vasys said. "When the big dogs are fighting, the little dogs look for opportunities to make their own money as well. The whole area is an opportunist's haven for just about all criminal activity." In September, the U.S. State Department issued a travel alert regarding the "rising level of brutal violence" that is "particularly persistent in the city of Nuevo Laredo." U.S. and Mexican citizens have been the victims of random shootings and execution-style murders in Nuevo Laredo, according to the alert. The abductions have left behind people on the U.S. side hoping their relatives are alive. Some of those relatives attended a prayer vigil at the elder Pina's church late Wednesday night. "It's just out of control; it's time for people to realize it can touch them," said Daniela Ortiz of Laredo whose husband, Sergio Ortiz, disappeared in Nuevo Laredo. "It's the same pain," said Priscilla Cisneros, whose daughter, Brenda Cisneros, vanished in Nuevo Laredo in September 2004. "We feel what they're feeling right now." Laredo and Nuevo Laredo are essentially one contiguous city separated by the Rio Grande, which divides the two cities but links their economic destinies. Laredo, a city of 175,000 residents, 90 percent of whom are Mexican-American, is the largest inland port in the United States. About 60 percent of U.S. trade with Latin America and 40 percent of the trucks that carry goods across the border go through Laredo, city spokeswoman Xochitl Mora said. The violence in Nuevo Laredo, a city of about 330,000, is opening a chasm wider than the river. "People ... would go across the border like it was crossing the street," Mora said. "They'd go over for dinner, go shopping, visit family. People now are cautious about going into Nuevo Laredo. That feeling before all the violence, it's kind of lost now." Cuellar said when she was younger she used to cross into Nuevo Laredo — alone — to go dancing. Just a couple years ago, she would take family and friends across for lunch and shopping. "In 2003, I wouldn't even think twice about going," she said. "Now, it has to be a dire necessity for me to go across the river."

NO JOY FOR IRAQI GAYS

[BBC News, April 17, 2006] Iraqi homosexual Hussain says he is afraid to go outdoors "I don't want to be gay anymore. When I go out to buy bread, I'm afraid. When the doorbell rings, I think that they have come for me." That is the fear that haunts Hussein, and other gay men in Iraq. They say that since the US-led invasion, gays are being killed because of their sexual orientation. They blame the increase in violence on the growing influence of religious figures and militia groups in Iraq since Saddam Hussein was ousted. Islam considers homosexuality sinful. A website published in the name of Ayatollah Sistani, Iraq's most revered Shia cleric, says gays should be put to death. "Those who commit sodomy must be killed in the harshest way," says a section of the website dealing with questions of morality. Sistani's official website calls for gays to be executed The statement appears on the Arabic section of the website, which is published in the Iranian city of Qom, but not in the English section. The BBC asked Mr Sistani's representative, Seyed Kashmiri, to explain the ruling. "Homosexuals and lesbians are not killed for practising their inclinations for the first time," Mr Kashmiri said in a response sent via email. "There are certain conditions drawn out by jurists before this punishment can be implemented, which is perhaps similar to the punishment meted out by other heavenly religions. Some rulings that are drawn out by jurists are done so on a theoretical basis. Not everything that is said is implemented." Killings and kidnappings are widespread in Iraq, with much of the bloodshed being linked to sectarian tensions and the anti-US insurgency. Haydar, a transsexual, was killed in Baghdad last year. But homosexual Iraqis who have spoken to the BBC say they are also being targeted because of their sexual preferences. Hussein is 32 and lives in Baghdad with his brother, sister-in-law and nieces. He says his effeminate appearance and demeanour make him stand out and attract hostility. "My brother's friends told him: 'In the current chaos you could get away with killing your brother without retribution and get rid of this shame,'" Hussein said, after agreeing to speak to the BBC only if his real name was not used. A transsexual friend of his, who had changed names from Haydar to Dina, was killed on her way to a party in Baghdad about six months ago, Hussein said. Ahmed is a 31-year-old interior decorator who used to live in Baghdad with his boyfriend, Mazin. Ahmed fled to Jordan nine months ago after Mazin was murdered outside a gym. After his partner was shot dead, Ahmed hid in the gym toilets then slipped away and later flew to Amman, the Jordanian capital. He says it was well known that they were a couple and Mazin was targeted because of his sexuality. "I fled from Iraq because of the threat to my life, because I was a gay man," he told the BBC. Ahmed also said that, before the gym shooting, he and a gay friend had survived a grenade attack and he still had fragments of shrapnel in his face. The friend was killed a week later by gunmen who raided his house, he added. Iraq's deputy interior minister Maj Gen Hussein Kamal told the BBC that he was unaware of any minority groups being specifically targeted for kidnappings and killings. He also said he was unaware of the statement on Ayatollah Sistani's website calling for gays to be killed. But he added: "We do not condone vigilante action. We encourage the victims to inform the authorities if they are subjected to any attacks." However, Hussein says gay people are afraid of the police. The Interior Ministry is run by members of Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Sciri), which is one of Iraq's country's leading Shia parties. Sciri has its own militia, the Badr Brigades, and there are widespread concerns that large parts of Iraq's police force are under the control of such groups. Hussein blames the Badr Brigades and other Shia militia for many of the attacks on gays. Human rights group Amnesty International said it had no information on reports of anti-gay violence in Iraq. "It is not an area that we have been actively looking at, but that is not to say that we will not look into the issue at some point," said a spokesman at the group's London headquarters. But Hussein, Ahmed and gay activists outside Iraq say there is clear evidence that the situation has deteriorated dramatically for Iraqi homosexuals. "Saddam was a tyrant, but at least we had more freedom then," said Hussein. "Nowadays, gay men are just killed for no reason."

IRAQ ON BRINK OF RELIGIOUS CIVIL WAR

[The Australian, February 24, 2006] Iraq is on the brink of civil war with up to 50 Sunni mosques destroyed and three imams slain in a wave of violence to avenge the bombing of one of the holiest Shia shrines. At least 80 people were killed in Baghdad in the 24 hours after the bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra, north of the capital, sparked the worst sectarian violence the country has seen since the fall of Saddam Hussein. The bloodletting exploded on to the streets of the Shia south and the simmering Sunni heartland in the wake of the destruction of the shrine. In the bloodiest apparent reprisal for the attack on the holy site, men in police uniform seized 12 Sunni rebel suspects, including two Egyptians, from a prison in the mainly Shia city of Basra and killed 11 of them. The violence showed no sign of abating last night, despite calls for calm from Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and the revered Shia clerical leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Police reported last night finding the bodies of three Iraqi journalists working for Dubai-based al-Arabiya satellite television, who were kidnapped near Samarra while reporting on the shrine bombing. The toppling of the mosque was the third attack on a Shia site in the past three days, but by far the most devastating. Mr Talabani pleaded for restraint. "We should stand hand-in-hand to prevent the danger of civil war," he said. "We are facing a major conspiracy that is targeting Iraq's unity." The President urged the formation of a national unity government that "will restore order to Iraq." The violence was immediately condemned by US President George W. Bush, the UN Security Council and Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who heads the region's only Shia-Islamic nation. Ayatollah Khamenei accused the US-led occupation force of conspiring to incite the bloodshed, but regional Arab leaders and Iraqi analysts laid the blame at the feet of the leader of the insurgency, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the most senior al-Qa'ida figure in the Middle East. The Jordanian-born Zarqawi has been the prime driver behind the violent Sunni uprising that has lured Islamic mercenaries to Iraq from around the world since the fall of Baghdad in March 2003, mainly to fight the US Army and its supporters. But Zarqawi's militants have also feared the rise in influence of the country's Shi'ites, who were brutally suppressed during the three-decade reign of toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. The Sunnis enjoyed disproportionate power and spoils under Saddam, but were relegated to the third-most influential group in the country by national elections in December that realigned Iraq along traditional sectarian lines. A Shia-led Government is in the process of taking power and assuming control of Iraq's enormous oil wealth. The election confirmed the Shia dominance, with a coalition of Shia parties winning 128 out of 275 seats. The bombing was seen as a bid by Sunni militants to derail negotiations for a government of national unity that would legitimise the new Shia dominance. Terrorists dressed in police uniform tied up guards at the Golden Mosque and planted explosives. The giant dome above the mosque fell to earth just before 7am on Wednesday. The shrine contains the tombs of two sacred Shia figures: the 10th and 11th imams, Ali al-Hadi and his son Hassan Ali al-Askari. A car bomb had killed 22 people in a Shia district of Baghdad the night before the bombing, just after a suicide bomber boarded a bus and blew himself up in a Shia stronghold in the west of the city. Shia leaders called last night for a week of mourning and urged Shi'ites to refrain from attacking Sunni sites. More than 3000 Iraqis are believed to have been killed in the past six months. Most of the deaths have been blamed on sectarian bloodletting. But the destruction of the mosque is seen as a serious escalation that could provide a lightning rod for the civil war Zarqawi's uprising has pledged to ignite in the name of al-Qa'ida.